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Anyway I see so many old friends posting a comment I just wanted to say hullo!Albert Enoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-58904961946011155342010-07-16T07:00:32.026-07:002010-07-16T07:00:32.026-07:00... possibly the most cringingly embarrassing piec...... possibly the most cringingly embarrassing piece of research I've ever read (even if he was slagging off Krugman!)<br /><br />My favourite case of the experts being wrong was when Marilyn vos Savants gave the (subsequently proven) correct if highly counterintuitive answer to a reader's question on the probabilities underlying the game show "Let's Make a Deal." She received 10,000 irate responses from expert mathematicians, including over 1,000 PhDs. According to Mlodinow, they included one from George Mason: <br /><br />"As a professional mathematician, I'm very concerned with the general public's lack of mathematical skill. Please help by confessing your error and, in the future, being more careful."<br /><br />From Dickinson State University:<br />"I am in shock that after being corrected by at least three mathematicians, you still do not see your mistake"<br /><br />From Georgetown:<br />"How many irate mathematicians are needed to change your mind?"<br /><br />From the US army:<br />"If all those PhDs are wrong the country would be in serious trouble"<br /><br />The last one was right, of course ...<br /><br />DylanGricenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-66407600599701241072010-07-12T19:23:07.113-07:002010-07-12T19:23:07.113-07:00The urge to trade fascinates me. Essentially all a...The urge to trade fascinates me. Essentially all a successful person has to do is acquire a single great asset and stay with it: no need to have 2nd and 3rd-string players when having the only the best is enough. Seems like clients demand action and want the portfolio manager seem busy and have "profound" thoughts on a regular basis. Actually having a single great thesis is supremely difficult: having a duo almost impossible.<br /><br />Following the World Cup's blatantly biased officiating made me think of how financial markets also operate on a sublime level, unseen to the naked eye. Before the advent of video recording and instant replay, what happened on the pitch was a matter of he said, she said. Now the audience can witness and archive how the events were manipulated to affect the outcome in a predetermined manner. With billions of dollars at stake during the games, there was much more going on than 22 impartial players kicking a ball around the field and a referee.<br /><br />The casino mentality of financial markets encourages booms and busts as a form of entertainment to keep players supplying money to the house wagering on this equity or that commodity or in cash. One wonders how much of the Greek tragedy was poor planning and how much was a deliberate effort to put them in their "place" by stronger players.<br /><br />Athreya intentionally wrote an inflammatory article, a la Limbaugh, to spark debate and get individuals to spout their own particular agenda, which did happen. Most of the talk is about personality issues and ignores the central issue of where to deploy assets. Behavioral financing cuts through the background noise of human's emotional need for self-satisfaction by trashing people and focusing instead on asset allocation.Leo Knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-59764663917972434182010-07-12T15:12:06.941-07:002010-07-12T15:12:06.941-07:00James
Welcome back. Your absence has been too lon...James <br />Welcome back. Your absence has been too long.<br /><br />You obviously touched a raw nerve with the coward anonymous crowd.<br />I have some sympathy with Dr Athreya’s views to the extent that I often scream at the radio when I hear internally inconsistent analysis – the type of thing Andrew Smithers calls “stockbroker economics”.<br /> <br />Where I part company is lining up against well reasoned arguments from authorities such as Krugman, DeLong and Warren. I didn’t know who Warren was till I googled her. <br />Here is part of her Wikipedia extract <br /><br />On April 12, 2010, CNN reported that Warren's was among additional names being considered as Supreme Court nominees to replace retiring Justice John Paul Stevens, however this honor went to Elena Kagan. She is also reportedly being considered by President Obama to be the first Director of the new consumer agency. On May 24, 2010, Time Magazine called Warren, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair, and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro the "New Sheriffs of Wall Street" in a cover story.<br /><br />Dr Athreya has a research papers on the Richmond Fed website on consumer education and financial literacy ( http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2009/pdf/eb_09-03.pdf ). It even has a nod towards behavioural economics and behavioural finance. Why attack (even insult) a person of influence in one of your areas of research unless you substantiate it with reasoned argument? <br /><br />But there is more. It appears the Richmond Fed has removed the original paper from its site. Understandable perhaps, but surely the authorities at the Richmond Fed should have been aware that the internet era does not allow you recall the arrow that has been shot. Scribd saw to that.<br /><br />Dr Athreya probably has some useful insights to contribute to the blogosphere debate. Dr Athreya has already put his head above the parapet. Don’t pull back. I look forward to the Athreya blog.Ian Brighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16005115334018485017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-15766301070107262312010-07-12T14:41:46.015-07:002010-07-12T14:41:46.015-07:00I agree that modern economics has taken a wrong tu...I agree that modern economics has taken a wrong turn, and that mathematical models tell us nothing about the real world. So if someone wants to know more about the economy, but doesn't want a PhD, what should they do? How have you, and others, honed your craft?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-56277878520849617872010-07-09T19:56:10.974-07:002010-07-09T19:56:10.974-07:00welcome back, james. no one has articulated our sa...welcome back, james. no one has articulated our sad state of affairs better than george did in this 3 minute clip. must watch for all... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYIC0eZYEtI And he didn't even need a PhD in economics to figure it all out.arnoldsimagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06074553482102994388noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-86259185073030378702010-07-09T13:28:36.099-07:002010-07-09T13:28:36.099-07:00First, Athreya is a he, not a she. I know this be...First, Athreya is a he, not a she. I know this because I used to work with him. This post is further evidence that Athreya is correct. Unqualified politicians, editorialists, and bloggers simply have no business discussing what they do not understand. <br /><br />Just look at all of the hacks arguing for additional government spending stimulus. It was economists that identified that spending has a much weaker stimulus effect than tax cuts. It was economists that have shown how extending unemployment insurance has INCREASED unemployment. And it was economists that understood that the financial industry needed a massive influx of liquidity during this recession.<br /><br />I guess it's okay to study Marxist theory if you want to learn what absolutely failed. Otherwise, why waste your time when you could learn what really works in modern economic theory. Hint: It ain't redistribution and it's not government spending.<br /><br />And why is it that the most egotistical maniacs attack the "arrogance" of Athreya? Comparing someone like say Barry Ritholtz to Athreya is like comparing the lightning bug to the nuclear bomb.<br /><br />Economics is a social science, not a physical science. So. If you look at the track record of scientists' predictions, then you'll probably see worse performance than for economists using their "less than real" tools. Actually, economists learn rigorous mathematical proofs in order to apply to aggregate real world phenomena, so of course there is going to be some error because not everyone reacts rationally and information is not distributed equally.<br /><br />Generalists are just like a pitiful dog example: Too busy chasing their tails to exercise the discipline needed to be successful in advanced economics or anything else for that matter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-37919692447914005832010-07-09T12:54:54.487-07:002010-07-09T12:54:54.487-07:00I originally wrote this on The Big Picture but jus...I originally wrote this on The Big Picture but just now had the brilliant idea to post it here. <br />***********************************<br />I’ve bookmarked this site. It looks pretty good.<br /><br />I have to disagree with your conclusion about economists learning to fail and preferring to remain as professional failures as a result of their failure training.<br /><br />I think they may have simply redefined the word and do not consider themselves to be failures as long as someone is paying them for their conclusions. In other words, there’s ‘economics’ as defined by the textbooks and there is ‘economics’ as defined by all the idiots who consistently get things wrong.<br /><br />The real question is “Has economics been redefined by the current group of idiots who claim to be professional economists?” OR “is economics the same as it has always been and the current group of idiots simply do what they are paid to do and CALL IT economics?”<br /><br />There is also the possibility that Economics really doesn’t exist. Rather, it’s just a convenient excuse to manipulate others into doing something. And the “Science of Economics” is used as cover for the bullshit reason that was devised to elicit the desired behavior.<br /><br />I haven’t yet figured out what the Fed does (as opposed to what the texts say they do) so they are excluded from the above questions.<br /><br />To me, economics is all about getting money from those who have it so that someone else can have it for a while. Everything else is qualification, excuse, misdirection, salesmanship, heart wrenching sad stories (some of which might be true), and the like.<br />**********************************<br />Study Question<br /><br />Interested Observer: “Whose economic ideas do you think most highly of?”<br /><br />Interested Observer: “Whose theory of gravity do you think most highly of?”<br /><br />Compare and contrast.dead hobonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-78182292573224841222010-07-09T10:51:56.872-07:002010-07-09T10:51:56.872-07:00The only problem is that he forgot Naomi Klein in ...The only problem is that he forgot Naomi Klein in his list of charlatans. You people are a collective joke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-4472379545153133082010-07-09T07:25:49.699-07:002010-07-09T07:25:49.699-07:00you may be interested in this acadamic paper: &quo...you may be interested in this acadamic paper: "why most published findings are false." http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1182327/?tool=pubmed<br /><br />I put it up in the linkedin Black Swan group on risk. For those qualified and interested, the group covers systemic, behavioural and institutional issues which lead to "normal accidents"nick gogertyhttp://www.gogerty.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-19648136374958656132010-07-09T05:03:34.548-07:002010-07-09T05:03:34.548-07:00A Generalist is someone who learns less and less a...A Generalist is someone who learns less and less about more and more until he knows nothing about everything whereas a Specialist is someone who learns more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing. Take your pick.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-27913934986304913322010-07-09T00:25:04.993-07:002010-07-09T00:25:04.993-07:00I do not intend to give offense to the PhDs of ec...I do not intend to give offense to the PhDs of economics. <br /><br />Nowadays' economics is very different from that in 60s-70s. <br /><br />Besides complex model building, how much time do the PhDs use in observing or even investigating the real world by themselves? Do you go into the real world and feel? Do they explain the everyday phenomena of our society and economy that we are mostly concerned? <br /><br />Economics is about people's activities!<br /><br />A good economist would be a good detective, observer and listener. <br /><br />We need economists who can explain the economic phenomena to us in plain words.<br /><br />Some bloggers may give us more insights as they stand more closely to the real people in the real world.Leo Sandsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-38587733794179748502010-07-08T17:43:56.738-07:002010-07-08T17:43:56.738-07:00Experts invented sub prime.
Its doesnt take a com...Experts invented sub prime.<br /><br />Its doesnt take a complicated arguemnt to observe interlectuals continue to make mistakes like anyone else just in a more elitist, clever and less easily understood ways<br /><br />'Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon'<br />Peter Lynch<br /><br />Charles Mingus<br />Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple, that's creativity.<br /><br />Albert Einstein<br />Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.<br /><br /><br />The heart of any great idea in any field is total simplicity and yet humans always have the ability for stupidity no matter how well educatedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4573016048187948924.post-75279964458670378582010-07-08T16:07:16.434-07:002010-07-08T16:07:16.434-07:00"Jonathan," he said, "All in the wo..."Jonathan," he said, "All in the world Ph.D. means is Piled Higher and Deeper.”<br /><br />Wow, that is so original. How ever did he come up with that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com